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On the rollercoaster ride that’s Bitcoin’s price, crypto-market participants may be wondering if the latest dip was stomach-churning enough, as the asset ratchets back up to $62,000.
Bitcoin saw some relief on Tuesday, following an especially precipitous day. But the asset has mostly tumbled throughout the month of June. Swooping down from $71,000 amid a flash-crash weeks ago, the asset’s price has plunged as much as 16% since nearing all-time highs.
The descent became noticeable as investors digested hawkish tones from the Federal Reserve, Kaiko analyst Dessislava Aubert told Decrypt in a statement. Trimming rate cut projections to one this year after its June policy meeting, the Fed’s move weighed on risk assets, she wrote.
But that doesn’t capture the full picture, with crypto-specific factors. Grayscale’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt in an interview that Bitcoin’s fundamentals have not changed within the past few days, and the pressure can be explained by three key factors.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with the selling of seized Bitcoin by the German government, and expected selling from Mt. Gox creditors have created an “overhang,” he said.
“We don’t exactly know how long this will last, and we don’t know how much selling there will be from Mt. Gox-related assets,” Pandl said. “But because fundamentals haven’t really changed, I do think we can anticipate valuations to eventually recover once that has passed.”
The dynamic influencing Bitcoin’s price can be compared to “lock boxes,” according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a post on Twitter (aka X), he explained that various crypto bankruptcies or seizures have historically taken Bitcoin off the market while reducing supply. But that’s shifting.
The latest event unlocking swathes of Bitcoin is the repayment of Mt. Gox’s customers, who lost 740,000 Bitcoin when the exchange was hacked in 2014. Though Mt. Gox has moved around $9.6 billion in recovered Bitcoin recently, some analysts think much less will hit the market soon.
Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorne estimated that 6,500 Bitcoin could be “dumped on the market” if most investors who get Bitcoin back from Mt. Gox hold their assets. It’s likely, he wrote, considering Mt. Gox’s customers are early adopters who’d have to pay capital gains.
Aubert of Kaiko noted that there have been “increased selling pressures from large Bitcoin holders, such as miners,” which doesn’t bode well for the summer. The asset’s volume has been historically low, and those two factors could exacerbate volatility in the market, she wrote.
For crypto, there are still price catalysts on the horizon, Pandl of Grayscale said. When spot Ethereum ETFs are eventually approved for trading this summer, he suggested that could create a rising tide for the overall crypto market.
“The potential for Ethereum ETF approvals is a big positive catalyst, potentially coming in the next several weeks,” he said. “So, my outlook would remain constructive on the asset class, and I think these are reasonably attractive entry points for investors that have a longer time horizon.”
Beyond the crypto market, Wall Street’s AI darling has faced recent headwinds too. After becoming the most valuable company in the world, shares in Nvidia have slipped 7% over the past week, trading hands at around $121.33 as the tech-heavy Nasdaq also retreated slightly.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
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